My Jamaal Charles Blog

I always find it helpful to break down specific positions into tiers. As always, the RB pool has some pretty distinct tiers. If you get any of these guys in the Top Tier, you've got a solid anchor to your squad.

Top Tier:
Chris Johnson $$72

Adrian Peterson $69

Maurice Jones-Drew $68

Ray Rice $66

Michael Turner $58

Frank Gore $55

Of course for every tier you can argue if certain players should be included or not and there is a pretty big swing in auction value from CJ to Gore ($17), but I believe these are all top tier talent.

Breakout candidate: Ray Rice

He had a great year last year, is very young and looks to be getting even better. Baltimore loves to run and Rice is a great receiving back as well. I don't think he's come anyway near his ceiling yet.

Safest Play: Maurice Jones-Drew

CJ and AP are also very safe, but you're going to have to pay for them. It feels like last year could be CJ's ceiling, well, you would think. AP looks steady to, but the fumbles are somewhat concerning if he keeps slipping up. Jones-Drew is the every down back who gets goal line work and 3rd down receptions. The Jags aren't a great team, but he is their best asset and they have to feed him.

Bust Potential: Chris Johnson*

It's tough to pinpoint a bust in the top tier this year. I love Chris Johnson, but so many things went right last year, it's just difficult to imagine he pulls it off again. Let me be clear, I don't think Chris Johnson is necessarily a bust (hence the asterisk), he's an awesome player and will have a great year. I just think that you might not get as much value out of him given his price tag this year, which could make him a bust relative to the % of your auction dollars you need to allocate to him to retain his services.

Best Value: Michael Turner

Last year he was a #2 overall guy going for the mid $60 range. He was having a very solid year and then got hurt. He came back very late a couple times but was never really ready nor was he effective. He's had time to heal now and get into better shape. Remember last year he had put on "muscle" coming into a camp. That is a code word for someone who got fat in the off-season. I can't ever think of a time when someone in a skill position puts on a bunch of weight, or "bulked up" as they sell it and it end up being a good thing. Turner will be back, slimmer and ready to return to form from his breakout campaign. His value has been knocked way down because of last year and I'm buying him if his price stays reasonable, like it looks on the board.

2nd Tier:

Steven Jackson $44

DeAngelo Williams $42

Rashard Mendenhall $41

Cedric Benson $40

Ryan Grant $35

Jamaal Charles $35

Ryan Matthews $35

Pierre Thomas $34

Shonn Greene $33

Beanie Wells $32

I almost cut off the tier after Grant, but opted to include the next 5 RB's after that as well. There is definitely a difference; I just don't think it's that huge.

Breakout Candidate: Shonn Greene

I think we were more timid about anointing this guy as the next RB god originally. Sure it was tough not to be high on him after his playoff performance, but once the Jets brought in LT, (even if you think he is done) it was a little worrisome. Given all that I am starting to think this guy could be a monster despite any value LT might shift away from him. The Jets run the ball so much and this guy looks like he can handle the load. It's tough to imagine LT getting any better than he was last year and if Greene is dominating, it's not going to take the Jets long to figure out that superior talent wins out and will get the bulk of the carries and goalline work. Look for Greene to move up our board on the next update.

Safest Play: Ryan Grant

He is the ultimate not-sexy running back. That's good though, because the tempting RB's are usually the ones that burn you. His offense is loaded, moves the ball and scores points. Nobody cuts into Grants workload and he's been producing at a solid level for a good stretch now.

Bust Potential: Rashard Mendenhall

I don't know if it's just me, but whenever I watched this guy play last year I was never overly impressed. I just think he's going way to high right now in drafts and auctions. The Steelers offense is in complete disarray with Big Ben out 6 weeks (maybe 4), Holmes gone and Hines Ward is supposed to be getting old for the tenth consecutive year.

Best Value: Ryan Matthews

I know, I know, how can a rookie have the best value when he's completely unproven. Based on Norv's statement of how much he wants to use this guy, I'm slightly bullish on him. Vincent Jackson might be holding out for a while after his suspension, which hurts the passing attack slightly. LT was such a disaster last year they had to get away from running it. I look for them to bring a more balanced attack again and Matthews will be the top dog in an offense that produces year in year out.

3rd Tier:

Moreno $26

Addai $24

Brown $23

McCoy $17

Stewart $17

Forte $14

Best $14

Tate $13

Jacobs $12

The third tier is the place where a person who did the opposite and went after WR's and QB's first lives. Sure you might get lucky on a couple of these guys if you get a few, but if one, or God forbid, two of them are your starters, I hope you got a really stacked WR corp and/or a premium QB.

Breakout Candidate: Everyone not named Joseph Addai

Seriously, you could make an argument for everyone on the list other than Addai that says each guy could have a breakout first season or rebound season. I just don't see a lot of upside with Addai.

Safest play: Joseph Addai

Huh? No, I'm not really a big fan of Addai, but the guy has produced at a moderate level the past few seasons, including 13 TD's last year. The Colts offense is always steady. The only concern is Donald Brown taking the job from him. Addai is not as old (27) as he feels like. When you're looking at the 3rd tier, it's tough to find safety, but Addai is the closest thing to it.

Bust Potential: Jahvid Best

How many rookie RB's from the Lions are you going to talk yourself into before you just give up and realize that anyone that is on the Lions is probably doomed for failure. Kevin Jones was the last one for me....never again. Let me summon my inner-Pitino...."Barry Sanders is not walking through that door!"

Best Value: Jonathon Stewart

Carolina is so run heavy, even the #2 guy (or depending how you view it, 1A guy) Jonathon Stewart is a beast. He posted starter-like numbers last year despite not being "the guy". He's a great value because if anything happens to DeAngelo, Stewart is probably a top 5 back, providing he doesn't get injured himself.

It's almost time for Fantasy Football season! Let the second guessing and over analysis begin!

The following rankings are based on a fantasy football player's year to end season value. If a draft or auction were to occur today this is the rank and value we place on the players based on their past performance and predicted future production. The basis for the valuations is a 10 team league starting 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 Defense with a 50% yardage and 50% TD scoring system with no points awarded for receptions. The rankings are updated every Tuesday morning, allowing players to value their teams, analyze player values for trades and plan future moves to get the most return out of your Fantasy Football players.

RANK PLAYER DESCRIPTION AUCTION $

1 Chris Johnson Titans, RB

Faster than a speeding Usain Bolt, more powerful than a locomotive, able to jump tall lineman on a 4th down, it's a Falcon it's a Jet, it's Chris Johnson. $44

2 Adrian Peterson Vikings, RB

Despite having some erratic games and fumbling issues, if anyone's going to have a record setting year in '10, it feels like it could be AP. $40

3 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars, RB

2009 stats feel like it could be his ceiling, even so, no complaints.....offense remains stable and a repeat performance very likely. $35

4 Ray Rice Ravens, RB

His weekly production is as reliable as Rush Limbaugh's 4th donut of the day. $34

5 Micheal Turner Falcons, RB

The Burner......if in the '08 season he was fueled by petroleum products......he apparently switched to "easy bake oven" technology '09.....he'll get it back on track in '10. $30

6 Frank Gore 49ers, RB

The forecast calls for high weekly averages with spotty nagging injuries all season. $27

7 Steven Jackson Rams, RB

This much potential hasn't been squandered since Matt Damon turned down Famke Jannsen in Rounders. $25

8 Andre Johnson Texans, WR

2009 receiving yards leader by over 200 yds. Potential for even more TD's, but his performance is tied to Schuab staying healthy. $24

9 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals, WR

If Warner retires, the Cardinals WR's are going to be like Rage Against the Machine trying to go on without Zach de la Rocha. $23

10 Cedric Benson Bears, RB

The question is....does his deal with the devil extend into the 2010 season? Or does he go back to the Cedric we know and hate? $22

11 Ryan Grant Packers, RB

Not the sexiest RB in terms of flash, but he does his job well......oddly the exact opposite can be said of Megan Fox. $21

12 Jamaal Charles Chiefs, RB

The Chiefs miserable team is not doing him any favors, but he is the kind of guy that is going to find a way to get his. $21

13 DeAngelo Williams Panthers,RB

The perks at a time share pitch are all fun and games, but make sure you know what the Panthers are selling before you buy...basically, a full split of two great backs. $21

14 Vincent Jackson Chargers, WR

Is to San Diego WR's what MadMen is to AMC.....both have made something completely irrelevant worth watching now. $20

15 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers,RB

Although we don't expect him to be unbelievable in '10; being the lead RB in PIT guarentee's a certain level of scoring. $19

16 Reggie Wayne Colts, WR

Like Charlize Theron, were not sure what we'll get out of Reggie next; the hottie in The Italian Job or the psycho in Monster that murders your fantasy season. He killed fantasy owners down the stretch of '09. $19

17 Aaron Rodgers Packers,QB

If his offensive line continues to give him the sandlot approved 5 banana count again next year like they did the second half of '09, we expect him to be the top rated fantasy QB again. $19

18 Drew Brees Saints, QB

In each of the past 4 years he's put up a minimum of 4,300 yds and 26 tds. Not too bad of numbers to build a fantasy team around. $19

19 DeSean Jackson Eagles, WR

Despite the fact that is was a turbulent ride with big swings in production....he had the highest average pts/game among Fantasy WR's last year. $19

20 Brandon Marshall Broncos, WR

It seems like every year leading up to Fantasy Drafts/Auctions, there are a lot of questions and reasons not to go after #15...for now we remain very optimistic on his '10 season. $19

21 Peyton Manning Colts, QB

Is he pimping any insurance companies on TV yet? If not he should, because when he's your FF QB, you always feel like your in good hands. $18

22 Miles Austin Cowboys, WR

We found out that his 200 yd game was not a one hit wonder last year....now we're curious if his '09 season was....if it's not, look for Blind Melon, The Proclaimers, Chumbawumba and Hanson to be knocking on his door for advice. $18

23 Randy Moss Patriots, WR

Don't get me wrong, its not that we don't like Moss' '09 numbers, its just we're kind of left with a bad taste in our mouths with how he went out in his last few games. $18

24 Thomas Jones Jets, RB

If you seek flashy highlight reel TD replays, go elsewhere, but if you like reliable production, you've come to the right place...assuming Father Time doesn't finally take him down. $17

25 Ronnie Brown Miami, RB

He's still young and we love him when healthy, but how many times can he bounce back from injury and be his old self. $17

26 Calvin Johnson Lions, WR

Looking more like a 'second tier' transforming action figure of the 80's......Gobot in disguise! $15

27 Beanie Wells Cardinals, RB

The trend at the end of 2009 season was Wells finally started getting the bulk of the carries over Hightower. If that continues into 2010, Wells will post solid numbers. $15

28 Knowshon Moreno Broncos, RB

With just under 1000 yds rushing and 9 total td's in 2009, he didn't exactly blow us away, but it wasn't a disaster either. Entering his second year he'll be counted on more and should deliver. $14

29 Anquan Boldin Cardinals, WR

If it's not too late, someone call Jeff Probst, Boldin would absolutely destroy the competition in an "injury bug" challenge on Survivor. $14

30 Joesph Addai Colts, RB

Addai's only 26...apparently he, Danny Almonte and Greg Oden all get their fake id's from the same place. $13

31 Kevin Smith Lions, RB

If you can talk yourself into a Detroit Lions RB not named Barry Sanders, then by all means. $12

32 Pierre Thomas
Saints, RB

He plays Suzanne Summers in the Saints aggravating Three's Company sitcom. He is the hottest by far, yet Mike Bell in the role of the butch brunette gets far too much screen time $12

33 Tom Brady Patriots, QB

Like DeNiro/Pacino in Godfather II & Heat...Brady/Moss had some incredible highs, lets hope 2010 doesn't turn into a collect the paycheck year and pump out a 'Righteous Kill' type season. $12

34 Sidney Rice Vikings, WR

He'd still be good, but if Favre retires, we're not as bullish on Rice with T Jack or Gus throwing to him. $10

35 Greg Jennings Packers, WR

His reversal of fortune last season rivals only that of an ameteur competitive eater; one minute focused and poised for a Coney Island Championship, the next he's got semi-digested wet hot dogs & buns all over his shoes. $10

36 Roddy White Falcons, WR

Seriously, Mr. White....Mr. Blonde wants to know, "are you going to bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?" $10

37 Steve Smith Carolina, WR

He's still near the front of the plane, it just feels like he's moved from first class to businees class after last year. $10

38 Matt Schaub Texans, QB

The under appreciated girl in high school who you knew was hot and now you're too late to the party. $9

39 Dallas Clark Colts, TE

Dallas International Airport is the nation's 3rd busiest, Dallas Clark is our #1 ranked TE. Suck it airport. $9

40 Antonio Gates Chargers, TE

No signs of SD going back to a run heavy offense with the aging LT-Style Electric Slider (he don't like that call) $9

41 Vernon Davis 49ers, TE

Has all the physical gifts to be in the movie Avatar, he just couldn't learn how to speak Na'Vi. $8

42 Chad Ochocinco Bengals, WR

He's never been a TD machine; it was always the consistent big yards & receptions that made him special, but with declining numbers in those areas, he starts to look more ordinary. $7

43 Phillip Rivers Chargers,QB

Trending well; since 2007 he's increased Yardage and TD totals while reducing INT's every year. $7

44 Owen Daniels Texans, TE

This ranking assumes a full recovery and return to 2009 form, when he was a top TE. $7

45 Matt Forte Bears, RB

The teen equivalent of going from Prom King to Chess Club in one year. High School can be so cruel. $7

46 Jonathon Stewart Panthers, RB

Would love him if he was the workhorse back in this offense, but might have to wait a little while longer for that scenario to play out. $7

47 Marques Colston Saints, WR

That's Marcus with a "Q". Oh, of course it is Mrs. Colston, what a lovely child. $6

48 Steve Smith Giants, WR

A great #2 Fantasy WR that will give you week in week out receptions and yardage. $6

49 Santonio Holmes Steelers, WR

If Santonio Holmes career parallels Larry Holmes career we believe next season could be the Gerry Cooney fight where Holmes really finds his stride. $6

50 Tony Romo Cowboys, QB

Tony Romo does a little too much peacocking to be a true Cowboy. He fell flat in the final game. He has been a bit streaky but with Austin, Witten and Jones their offense looks to be dangerous. $6

You can approach your Fantasy Football Auction in three different ways and I think taking the Studs and Duds approach makes the most sense. In general, taking a Studs-N-Duds approach means to me; spending all auction money on a few players and paying around a dollar for all other players to fill the rest your lineup. I think there are two other mindsets you can have going into the auction; the first one would be creating a balanced communist team where you don't have any standouts and no real low end players. The third approach is basically having no approach and just flying by the seat of your pants. I don't know if there are exact definitions for any of these approaches and there are of course varying degrees of all three, but going forward, this is my mindset when I speak to each. Also, regardless of your approach, there should be a certain degree of flexibility if things get out of hand; severe under or over spending compared to fair auction values. You might have to roll with it when that happens and flip your strategy. In general though, if everything is equal I think Studs-N-Duds is the way to go.

Let's work our way from the bottom up. The "I have no strategy" approach requires almost zero discussion. Everyone knows the owners in their respective leagues who come in having just opened their fantasy magazine the night before and are mostly clueless. Let's be honest though, we don't mind these kinds of players. Hopefully they don't get too lucky and just end up donating their buy in to the league. If you're reading this article in June, chances are you are not this person.

If you actually do some research before your auction, chances are you might have talked yourself into the balanced team strategy at some point. While, I don't think this strategy is a disaster like the "I have no strategy" approach, I do think it is flawed. The main issue I have with it is too much depth on a roster. One might say, what's wrong with too much depth, my guys get hurt every year and I need solid backups. While I agree with that in theory, the problem lies in your lack of flexibility. I found this out first hand when I took this approach early in my auction career. You end up with such a stacked bench relative to everyone else; you're completely handcuffed to make any moves. Simply put, you can't make any additions via the waiver wire because you have no one to cut. Also, once the bye weeks start up, you will run into issues with filling positions you don't have a backup at (probably kicker, defense, TE and maybe even QB depending on your bench size). So you then have to cut someone that you shouldn't be cutting and then end up strengthening your opponent via waiver wire. Personally, I think a lot of the fun during the season is picking up players that come out of no where or have a lot of upside once a key starter gets injured. Last year nobody knew much about Jamaal Charles at the start of the season, but once he got the starting job, he was a guy you could ride to the championship. If you insist on creating a balanced team with depth, at least leave yourself one spot that you can cut without feeling too bad about it for a bye week pickup or a waiver wire gem.

The arguments against the balanced team approach end up being part of the reason why I think going in with the Studs-N-Duds (SND's) approach is best. When you spend your money early, you have no choice but to be left with some crappy players that maybe don't even belong on a roster. That's ok though, you've given yourself the opportunity to go after that WR that just had a breakout game (see Miles Austin or Sidney Rice last year) and the potential to become a star the rest of the season. There are so many players that come out of the woodwork during the year due to players getting injured in front of them or someone who just emerges as a superior talent. When that happens, you will always have a shot to add these players because you have someone you can cut with a clear conscience. Sure you might miss on a few or many of your waiver wire pick ups, but the fact is you'll be able to play it much more freely because you have bad players you can easily part with. It's just like a sales rep and cold calling, numbers, numbers, numbers, the more clients called on the more they convert to customers. Having this increase flexibility and by the sheer number of waiver moves you are allowed to make, you're bound to be able to land a couple players that pan out and when they do, all the better. Now you've just landed a waiver wire stud. Couple that with you're pre-established studs you bought in the auction and you could be on your way for a run at the championship. Conversely, if you have too much of a balanced team, you're much more reliant on the team you bought at the auction (that was based on preseason info and assumptions). Since you're more vested in the players you have and can't cut them, you're limited in the amount of transactions you can make. Thus have a much lower chance of being successful in mining the waiver wire because you're not getting enough good looks at players. Also, by going SND's, you don't get yourself into a bad spot where you're cutting good talent just so you can field a starting position where you have no back up and don't want to cut your starter.

For me though, the biggest reason to go SND's; if you spend your money on the best players early, you are getting the difference makers on your team. Every team needs a homerun hitter or two that can go out and win you the week. By spending your money on two to three big name high value players, you're setting yourself up for the opportunity to score big points each week. Those middle of the road guys just don't quite provide the pop a big name can. If you take middle of the road talent, expect middle of the road results. Sure, you might get a bunch of steady guys and every team needs some of those, but to win week in week out you need someone who can drop a monster game. I'd rather have Chris Johnson and some schmoes than have a bunch of mid-tier talent because I know Chris Johnson will win me some weeks outright by himself even if surrounded by waiver wire talent. You can always find QB's, WR's, TE's, K's and Def's on the waiver wire that are playable and maybe even have decent matchups. When sitting on a balanced team, you might get 40 points out of 2 RB's and 2 WR's and feel ok, but someone like a Chris Johnson or AP has the potential to put that up by themselves every week. Doesn't it seem like a lot of years, the guy who wins the league or does really well in the regular season is someone who had a player that had an incredible season? While players definitely can come from no where (which you are now free to go after on waiver wire), the best players most often end up being the ones that were expensive at the auction.

So let's say you got your studs and duds team and it's not working; you're not winning and you want to mix it up or you've taken multiple injuries to other positions. Providing your stud is performing, you can always sell him off in a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deal and get a bunch of fresh faces in the clubhouse. It's funny because usually it's the balanced team that is looking to trade to get the stud players. You never see the teams with the stud players out shopping them unless something awful has happened. So why not just pay for your studs right up front and build around them.

The only downside to the SND approach is injury and not having any trade value if your star(s) get injured. Truth is though, if one of your big horses goes down, your basically effed anyways. Even so, I'd argue that injuries are so unpredictable as far as who will get hurt and when, it's just not worth building a backup plan for. Most championship teams aren't won from someone's backup plan if their starters got hurt. Some seasons you're going to take more injuries than others. Sometimes you can manage through them, sometimes you can't. But if you build a mediocre team to try to handle potential injuries, expect average results. Go big or go home.

While I think the right strategy coming into an auction is going SND's, that's not to say you should spend all your money at foolish auction prices. I know I've written about being flexible at the auction in the past. I still agree with that theory, because if the Studs are just way too outrageous priced, you can't cripple your team by egregiously overspending. If that inflation does happen, you need to be flexible and acquire a more balanced team (and of course filling at least one roster spot with someone you can walk away from in 5 seconds flat if you smell a better player around the corner).

In general though, my mindset going into the auction is to get your studs early and be prepared to be an active manager who is always working the waiver wire to fill holes with solid prospects all season.

It could be the best strategy for auction enter the 2010 fantasy football season to blow his wad in 2 of the top 5 Running Backs bet rather then on smaller spots back production. This comment applies only to the running backs. QB fields and TE seem very deep that could make it more easy to overpay for regular budget talent, since you can get a good cheap QB and TE. WRs seem to be the same bag mixed seasons as the majority, are notoriously difficult to identify who is going to be huge, and who is going to bust.

There will be levels of second and third level running backs, which have large years just believe that it is difficult to predict it will be this year.Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner seem far more likely candidates for large temporadas.Creo that should command a price premium on auctions 2010 fantasy football.

The remaining running backs who all seem to have some very large mark signs around them.Next normally above 5 are Frank Gore (injury prone and a suspected offence), Steven Jackson (terrible offense and bad production 2009), Cedric Benson (perhaps to the 5 most upward but still is Cedric Benson), Ryan Grant (decent production, but it is an offence of first step) and last Jamaal Charles (terrible offense and still a bit of a talent not tested with a likely time share hope to get degraded below update.)